By iQfruits staff
Red seedless grape varieties are running short in Europe. The shortage may highlight a key transition period with Southern Hemisphere supply winding down while supplies from Northern Hemisphere countries like Egypt and Spain are starting to ramp up.
A couple of factors are driving the squeeze.
One, stocks of white seedless varieties from India are piling up late in the season. Retailers are a little tired after a long season and may want to open up shelf space for Egyptian supplies.
Two, Eid fell in the middle of the season this year and truck shortages hit the Koper port during a European holiday.
Prices are reflecting the tightness in supply.
Indian grapes averaged €2.90 FOT per kilogram during the first week of June, according to data from iQfruits. Crimson Seedless grapes were hitting the market for €3.65 per kilogram FOT during the same week.
This squeeze is happening as the annual geographic supply pivot gets underway.
Week 24 (the second week of June) marks this pivot when Southern Hemisphere supply — Peru, Chile and South Africa — winds down and origins like Egypt and Spain step in. Weekly arrivals appeared to collapse to 200 tonnes by Week 24. That's not a demand or supply failure. It's the normal trough between hemispheres.
Record early-season arrivals from the Southern Hemisphere through the first 23 weeks of the year reached about 452,000 tonnes, 9% above 2025.
That total reflects the strength of the outgoing Southern Hemisphere wave but does not include incoming Egyptian or Spanish volumes. Those origins are just getting started, and arrival data for them isn't yet meaningful.
Egyptian fruit has held a clear price premium as the transition kicks off.
It traded above €3.20 per kilogram through May and into June, the highest-priced origin in the FOT data during that window.
Post-Eid, Egypt is ramping up loadings to Europe. More fruit is heading to ports like Koper and Ravenna than last year. Shippers are trying to make up time lost in Week 22, when the country came to a near-standstill over the holiday.
Quality on early Egyptian arrivals into Rotterdam has been mixed. Containers routed through Koper are faring better, thanks to shorter transit times.
Spanish supply is only now entering the market. The most recent FOT price sits around €2 per kilogram, near the low end of last year's €2 to €2.85 range for a season that ran roughly Weeks 30 to 51.
It's too early to draw conclusions on Spain's trajectory. The timing and pricing of the Spain-to-domestic handover remains the key watchpoint for the coming weeks.
Two questions will shape the coming weeks. How aggressively will Egypt sustain its post-Eid push? And how will Spain's opening prices evolve as volumes build?
India's white seedless season is effectively over. Red seedless remains tight across origins. The early read on the Northern Hemisphere handover will set the tone for pricing through midsummer.
Accumulated arrivals in kilograms of table grapes to Europe via Rotterdam from all origins 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026. (Source: iQfruits)
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